COVID-19 Economic Impact

A series of agent-based and input-output models quantified the sectoral, industry, and health-economy trade-offs of the COVID-19 shock in the US, UK, and NYC.

We integrated an economic and an epidemic agent-based models to assess the health-economy trade-off in New York City.

The economic model we developed predicted the economic impact of the pandemic on UK economy well at both the aggregate and sectoral level.

We provide quantitative predictions of first order COVID-19 supply and demand shocks for the US economy. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks threaten around 20% of the US economy’s GDP and jeopardize 23% of jobs.

References

• Pangallo, Marco, et al. “The unequal effects of the health–economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic.” Nature Human Behaviour (2023). Read here
• Pichler, Anton, et al. “Forecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output model” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2022). Read here
• del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria, et al. “Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2020). Read here